Modeling global catastrophic risks as single events makes sense for a lot of purposes. In terms of preventive actions to be taken, and how resources from, e.g., governments should be divvied up between risks, insuring against one-off catastrophes are important. I think it makes sense to exclude climate change itself from the model, and include potentially catastrophic events which may result from runaway climate change, like worldwide famines.
Another way to model global catastrophic risks is to model their rising profile as a function of time, and past which critical milestones will the scale or degree of the risk irreversibly escalate. This way for the purposes of x-risk studies we can have a model which incorporates both the risk climate change poses over time, versus the development of emerging technologies like AI and genetic engineering over the same period of time.
Modeling global catastrophic risks as single events makes sense for a lot of purposes. In terms of preventive actions to be taken, and how resources from, e.g., governments should be divvied up between risks, insuring against one-off catastrophes are important. I think it makes sense to exclude climate change itself from the model, and include potentially catastrophic events which may result from runaway climate change, like worldwide famines.
Another way to model global catastrophic risks is to model their rising profile as a function of time, and past which critical milestones will the scale or degree of the risk irreversibly escalate. This way for the purposes of x-risk studies we can have a model which incorporates both the risk climate change poses over time, versus the development of emerging technologies like AI and genetic engineering over the same period of time.