If we develop cost-competitive clean meat within the next 5 years, it will probably take another 5-10 years before fast food chains start serving them (and may take longer in the US because the USDA may have to approve it first, which could take a long time). So I don’t think there’s a high probability that fast food chains will adopt clean meat by 2021, although this has little to do with my beliefs about when it will achieve cost-competitiveness. Even if it were cost-competitive as of right now, I still wouldn’t expect to see clean meat in fast food chains within 5 years.
Betting on fast food chains increases more dependencies in the bet—instead of just betting on when clean meat will be cost-competitive, we’re betting on how quickly it will achieve widespread acceptance and production will scale up to a national level. I would prefer to make a simpler bet that’s purely about cost-effectiveness.
If we develop cost-competitive clean meat within the next 5 years, it will probably take another 5-10 years before fast food chains start serving them (and may take longer in the US because the USDA may have to approve it first, which could take a long time). So I don’t think there’s a high probability that fast food chains will adopt clean meat by 2021, although this has little to do with my beliefs about when it will achieve cost-competitiveness. Even if it were cost-competitive as of right now, I still wouldn’t expect to see clean meat in fast food chains within 5 years.
Betting on fast food chains increases more dependencies in the bet—instead of just betting on when clean meat will be cost-competitive, we’re betting on how quickly it will achieve widespread acceptance and production will scale up to a national level. I would prefer to make a simpler bet that’s purely about cost-effectiveness.