Thanks, this is exactly the sort of thing I was looking for.
Slightly unrelated but:
Part of what I’m getting at is a desire to see you defend the wacky claims implicit in your model posteriors.
The wacky claims you’ve talked about here relate to far-future posteriors. Do you also mean the direct effect posteriors imply wacky claims? I know you’ve said before you think the way I set a prior is arbitrary, is there anything else?
Thanks, this is exactly the sort of thing I was looking for.
Slightly unrelated but:
The wacky claims you’ve talked about here relate to far-future posteriors. Do you also mean the direct effect posteriors imply wacky claims? I know you’ve said before you think the way I set a prior is arbitrary, is there anything else?