I don’t actually remember what I meant by “too speculative”, that was probably not a helpful thing to say.
“I thought it was unlikely that I’d change my mind” is a strange reason for not accounting for this consideration in the model.
There are thousands of semi-plausible things I could try to model. It would not be worth the effort to try to model all of them. I have to do some pre-prioritization about which things to model, so I pick the things that seem the most important. Specifically, I think about the expected value of modeling something (how likely am I to change my mind and how much does it matter if I do?) and how long it will take to see if it seems worth it. Sometimes I do this explicitly and sometimes implicitly. I don’t really know how likely I am to change my mind, but I can make a rough guess. It wouldn’t make sense to try to model thousands of things on the off chance that any of them could change my mind.
If you would like to see how factory farming affects wild animal suffering, by all means create a cost-effectiveness estimate and share it.
I don’t actually remember what I meant by “too speculative”, that was probably not a helpful thing to say.
There are thousands of semi-plausible things I could try to model. It would not be worth the effort to try to model all of them. I have to do some pre-prioritization about which things to model, so I pick the things that seem the most important. Specifically, I think about the expected value of modeling something (how likely am I to change my mind and how much does it matter if I do?) and how long it will take to see if it seems worth it. Sometimes I do this explicitly and sometimes implicitly. I don’t really know how likely I am to change my mind, but I can make a rough guess. It wouldn’t make sense to try to model thousands of things on the off chance that any of them could change my mind.
If you would like to see how factory farming affects wild animal suffering, by all means create a cost-effectiveness estimate and share it.