Will internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040?Will internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040?
(Here i mean data leaks that happen on a company level, meaning the service provider leaks full message histories. This excludes leaks through missteps by individuals such as accidentally setting wrong channel permissions, or leaked screenshots)
Conditional on all EA community building Slack Workspaces being replaced with Mattermost instances, would user participation in those spaces drop by more than 5%?Conditional on all EA community building Slack Workspaces being replaced with Mattermost instances, would user participation in those spaces drop by more than 5%?Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression by 2040?Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression by 2040?
(for example withdrawal of operating license, denial of work visas, etc. in any country)
Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression in the US, UK or a EU country by 2040?Will an EA aligned organisation become target of directed government repression in the US, UK or a EU country by 2040?
Ok, this seems to be a good workaround: For posts with footnotes, use the markdown editor. Then after posting, switch to the regular editor in your profile settings, and post your elicit prediction links in a comment.
edit: updated with clarifications and a fourth question as meerpirat suggested
Cool! I also think it’s great you set up those prediction. For me, the data leakage & government repression predictions don’t closely track the issues you’re arguing for.
data leak: someone who shouldn’t have the data, has them. This is generally non-reversible.
I was once accidentally added to an internal Slack workspace and I was confused about it and read a bunch of stuff I wasn’t supposed to read. Also, people unilaterally leaking screenshots from Slack seems to happen regularly. According to your definition, shouldn’t this be data leakage? That seems very likely to happen in the next 20 years.
Government repression of NGOs seems to be pretty common in some countries, at least it seems so when reading news from Human Rights groups, e.g. in Turkey, China and Russia. If I’d predict here, I’d focus on countries in this class and little on UK, US or central Europe.
Thank you, you’re right I added the predictions at the last minute, and should have spent a few more minutes making sure that they are operationalized well.
I added a clarification about the kind of leaks I meant, as you noted if any individual sharing a screenshot counts, it would not be a useful prediction.
Same for government repression – I added another question for US,UK and EU.
Thanks, I’ll try and embed them here:
(Here i mean data leaks that happen on a company level, meaning the service provider leaks full message histories. This excludes leaks through missteps by individuals such as accidentally setting wrong channel permissions, or leaked screenshots)
(for example withdrawal of operating license, denial of work visas, etc. in any country)
Ok, this seems to be a good workaround: For posts with footnotes, use the markdown editor. Then after posting, switch to the regular editor in your profile settings, and post your elicit prediction links in a comment.
edit: updated with clarifications and a fourth question as meerpirat suggested
Cool! I also think it’s great you set up those prediction. For me, the data leakage & government repression predictions don’t closely track the issues you’re arguing for.
I was once accidentally added to an internal Slack workspace and I was confused about it and read a bunch of stuff I wasn’t supposed to read. Also, people unilaterally leaking screenshots from Slack seems to happen regularly. According to your definition, shouldn’t this be data leakage? That seems very likely to happen in the next 20 years.
Government repression of NGOs seems to be pretty common in some countries, at least it seems so when reading news from Human Rights groups, e.g. in Turkey, China and Russia. If I’d predict here, I’d focus on countries in this class and little on UK, US or central Europe.
Thank you, you’re right I added the predictions at the last minute, and should have spent a few more minutes making sure that they are operationalized well.
I added a clarification about the kind of leaks I meant, as you noted if any individual sharing a screenshot counts, it would not be a useful prediction.
Same for government repression – I added another question for US,UK and EU.