Thanks, Fai! I have now changed āharmfulā in the title to ābeneficial or harmfulā. I was previously emphasising the possibility of harm because cage-free reforms have been considered robustly beneficial interventions. However, I agree the current version is more representative of the post, and my belief that the probability of chicken welfare reforms being harmful is close to 50 %. I estimated93.1 % of the increase in the welfare of soil nematodes, mites, and springtails resulting from increasing cropland, as caused by chicken welfare reforms, comes from decreasing nematode-years, and calculated soil nematodes have negative lives with a probability of 58.7 %, which suggests a probability of 41.3 % (= 1 ā 0.587) of chicken welfare reforms being harmful. In reality, the probability of them being harmful is higher due to uncertainty about whether they increase or decrease, especially for cage-free reforms. My assumptions imply these increase feed by only ā3.63 %ā, āGeminiās ranges for the FCR of egg production in cages [2.0 to 2.2] and barns [1.9 to 2.1] overlap a lotā.
Thanks, Fai! I have now changed āharmfulā in the title to ābeneficial or harmfulā. I was previously emphasising the possibility of harm because cage-free reforms have been considered robustly beneficial interventions. However, I agree the current version is more representative of the post, and my belief that the probability of chicken welfare reforms being harmful is close to 50 %. I estimated 93.1 % of the increase in the welfare of soil nematodes, mites, and springtails resulting from increasing cropland, as caused by chicken welfare reforms, comes from decreasing nematode-years, and calculated soil nematodes have negative lives with a probability of 58.7 %, which suggests a probability of 41.3 % (= 1 ā 0.587) of chicken welfare reforms being harmful. In reality, the probability of them being harmful is higher due to uncertainty about whether they increase or decrease, especially for cage-free reforms. My assumptions imply these increase feed by only ā3.63 %ā, āGeminiās ranges for the FCR of egg production in cages [2.0 to 2.2] and barns [1.9 to 2.1] overlap a lotā.