There are two totally valid conclusions to draw from the structure you’ve drawn up: that CS people or EA people are deluded, or that the world at large, including extremely smart people, is extremely bad at handling weird or new things.
Empirics has come to dominate econ (all but 1? of the recent American economic review articles were empiric-focused). Where’s the data for a treatment effect of a treatment that hasn’t occurred? Forecasts and expert predictions are not very stylish either, compared to “true causal effects.” I don’t know the best approach to solve this and am open to ideas
There are two totally valid conclusions to draw from the structure you’ve drawn up: that CS people or EA people are deluded, or that the world at large, including extremely smart people, is extremely bad at handling weird or new things.
Empirics has come to dominate econ (all but 1? of the recent American economic review articles were empiric-focused). Where’s the data for a treatment effect of a treatment that hasn’t occurred? Forecasts and expert predictions are not very stylish either, compared to “true causal effects.” I don’t know the best approach to solve this and am open to ideas