I think your right that it would be very bad reputationally if the community as a whole was widely perceived as doing this. But itâs also a bit easier to say that if you also believe that this is actually a bad, or at least useless, thing to do on itâs own merits. If you donât think that, it seems a bit sleazy (even if perhaps correct) to reason âthis would actually help improve how we deal with sexual misconduct, but we shouldnât do it because itâll make us look badâ. Of course, the fact that something looks bad is evidence it IS bad, even if it seem good to you, but not always definitive evidence. Personally I donât think it would be useful, but Iâm not sure how much someone making a Manifold market would actually cause outside people to perceive this as something âEAsâ do, or even that they would notice the market at all.
I think your right that it would be very bad reputationally if the community as a whole was widely perceived as doing this. But itâs also a bit easier to say that if you also believe that this is actually a bad, or at least useless, thing to do on itâs own merits. If you donât think that, it seems a bit sleazy (even if perhaps correct) to reason âthis would actually help improve how we deal with sexual misconduct, but we shouldnât do it because itâll make us look badâ. Of course, the fact that something looks bad is evidence it IS bad, even if it seem good to you, but not always definitive evidence. Personally I donât think it would be useful, but Iâm not sure how much someone making a Manifold market would actually cause outside people to perceive this as something âEAsâ do, or even that they would notice the market at all.
I certainly also think itâd be useless, like most prediction markets in EA.