I think your right that it would be very bad reputationally if the community as a whole was widely perceived as doing this. But it’s also a bit easier to say that if you also believe that this is actually a bad, or at least useless, thing to do on it’s own merits. If you don’t think that, it seems a bit sleazy (even if perhaps correct) to reason ‘this would actually help improve how we deal with sexual misconduct, but we shouldn’t do it because it’ll make us look bad’. Of course, the fact that something looks bad is evidence it IS bad, even if it seem good to you, but not always definitive evidence. Personally I don’t think it would be useful, but I’m not sure how much someone making a Manifold market would actually cause outside people to perceive this as something “EAs” do, or even that they would notice the market at all.
I think your right that it would be very bad reputationally if the community as a whole was widely perceived as doing this. But it’s also a bit easier to say that if you also believe that this is actually a bad, or at least useless, thing to do on it’s own merits. If you don’t think that, it seems a bit sleazy (even if perhaps correct) to reason ‘this would actually help improve how we deal with sexual misconduct, but we shouldn’t do it because it’ll make us look bad’. Of course, the fact that something looks bad is evidence it IS bad, even if it seem good to you, but not always definitive evidence. Personally I don’t think it would be useful, but I’m not sure how much someone making a Manifold market would actually cause outside people to perceive this as something “EAs” do, or even that they would notice the market at all.
I certainly also think it’d be useless, like most prediction markets in EA.