I haven’t disagree voted this. I’m the #1 trader on Manifold. I doubt prediction markets will be useful here. In fact, I think I could probably use prediction markets to “screw with people”. For example “watch out for X, Manifold thinks there is a 15% chance that they have a sexual assault charge in the next year”.
Yes I wasn’t sure it was a good idea. Anecdotally, I forecasted a question on VC funding to female founders. My forecast was negative and accurate and I was surprised of how well most other forecasters thought things were going for female founders. The process of forecasting also forced me to think through the factors preventing more female founders from getting more funding which I found educational. But perhaps my experience doesn’t translate well. That said I think most negative reactions to my idea was mostly me hijacking this post which I think is fair criticism and some people seemed to think it might be worthwhile.
I agree it would not be good if predictions are made about people—that seems really bad a bit like black mirror!
I haven’t disagree voted this. I’m the #1 trader on Manifold. I doubt prediction markets will be useful here. In fact, I think I could probably use prediction markets to “screw with people”. For example “watch out for X, Manifold thinks there is a 15% chance that they have a sexual assault charge in the next year”.
Yes I wasn’t sure it was a good idea. Anecdotally, I forecasted a question on VC funding to female founders. My forecast was negative and accurate and I was surprised of how well most other forecasters thought things were going for female founders. The process of forecasting also forced me to think through the factors preventing more female founders from getting more funding which I found educational. But perhaps my experience doesn’t translate well. That said I think most negative reactions to my idea was mostly me hijacking this post which I think is fair criticism and some people seemed to think it might be worthwhile.
I agree it would not be good if predictions are made about people—that seems really bad a bit like black mirror!