FWIW there was actually someone making such a prediction for ACE back in the days. It stood at 15% chance which I think is uncomfortably high for chance of a scandal in a single year—it implies an 80% chance of it happening over a 10-year period! They also ran another question on a scandal related to racism.
It stood at 15% chance which I think is uncomfortably high for chance of a scandal in a single year
Note that it wasn’t just ACE, it was ACE or any of it’s (~dozen) top or standout charities.
it implies an 80% chance of it happening over a 10-year period
I don’t think assuming full independence makes sense? I wouldn’t go all the way to “if they have a scandal-likely person/culture then they will definitely have a scandal this year, so 15% is the probability they have a scandal-likely person/culture” but I do think that’s a piece of it. Very roughly I’d guess that 15% in one year gives 50% in ten?
Thanks, those are important points. I just quickly came across it by searching for something else and thought I would share as it seemed very relevant.
FWIW there was actually someone making such a prediction for ACE back in the days. It stood at 15% chance which I think is uncomfortably high for chance of a scandal in a single year—it implies an 80% chance of it happening over a 10-year period! They also ran another question on a scandal related to racism.
Note that it wasn’t just ACE, it was ACE or any of it’s (~dozen) top or standout charities.
I don’t think assuming full independence makes sense? I wouldn’t go all the way to “if they have a scandal-likely person/culture then they will definitely have a scandal this year, so 15% is the probability they have a scandal-likely person/culture” but I do think that’s a piece of it. Very roughly I’d guess that 15% in one year gives 50% in ten?
Thanks, those are important points. I just quickly came across it by searching for something else and thought I would share as it seemed very relevant.