FWIW, my general orientation to most of the debates about these kinds of theoretical issues is that they should nudge your thinking but not drive it. What should drive your thinking is just: āSuffering is bad. Do something about it.ā So, yes, the numbers count. Yes, update your strategy based on the odds of making a difference. Yes, care about the counterfactual and, all else equal, put your efforts in the places that others ignore. But for most people in most circumstances, they should look at their opportunity set, choose the best thing they think they can sweat and bleed over for years, and then get to work.
As I just commented, I like this point to understand your general orientation better, but I do not seem to agree with the sentiment about the impact of moral views on cause prioritisation. It makes sense to have 4 years with an impact of 0 throughout a career of 44 years to increase the impact of the remaining 40 years (= 44 ā 4) by more than 10 % (= 4ā40). In this case, the impact would not be 0 āin most circumstancesā (40/ā44 = 90.9 % > 50 %). So I very much agree with a literal interpretation of the above. However, I feel like it conveys that moral views, and cause prioritisation are less important than what they actually are.
As I just commented, I like this point to understand your general orientation better, but I do not seem to agree with the sentiment about the impact of moral views on cause prioritisation. It makes sense to have 4 years with an impact of 0 throughout a career of 44 years to increase the impact of the remaining 40 years (= 44 ā 4) by more than 10 % (= 4ā40). In this case, the impact would not be 0 āin most circumstancesā (40/ā44 = 90.9 % > 50 %). So I very much agree with a literal interpretation of the above. However, I feel like it conveys that moral views, and cause prioritisation are less important than what they actually are.