Executive summary: The author argues that macrostrategy should focus on identifying and resolving a sufficient set of “primary cruxes,” because if these are gotten right—most centrally preventing existential catastrophes and achieving deep reflection—then all secondary cruxes about the future’s value will be solved automatically.
Key points:
A “crux” is defined as a factor that determines a significant portion of how valuable the future is, and macrostrategy research aims to identify and relate these cruxes to maximize future value.
The author distinguishes between primary cruxes, which are sufficient to get all secondary cruxes right if understood correctly, and secondary cruxes, which can be safely ignored if primary cruxes are handled well.
At the highest level, the author proposes two main primary cruxes: preventing existential catastrophes and achieving deep reflection (or “comprehensive reflection”).
Preventing existential catastrophes includes avoiding outcomes like human extinction or a global AI-enabled stable totalitarian dictatorship that drastically reduce long-term potential.
Deep reflection is described as humanity collectively determining and acting on a strategy that maximizes future expected value, drawing on ideas like the long reflection and coherent extrapolated volition.
The author suggests that multiple different sufficient sets of primary cruxes may exist, and that discovering such a sufficient set would effectively solve macrostrategy.
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Executive summary: The author argues that macrostrategy should focus on identifying and resolving a sufficient set of “primary cruxes,” because if these are gotten right—most centrally preventing existential catastrophes and achieving deep reflection—then all secondary cruxes about the future’s value will be solved automatically.
Key points:
A “crux” is defined as a factor that determines a significant portion of how valuable the future is, and macrostrategy research aims to identify and relate these cruxes to maximize future value.
The author distinguishes between primary cruxes, which are sufficient to get all secondary cruxes right if understood correctly, and secondary cruxes, which can be safely ignored if primary cruxes are handled well.
At the highest level, the author proposes two main primary cruxes: preventing existential catastrophes and achieving deep reflection (or “comprehensive reflection”).
Preventing existential catastrophes includes avoiding outcomes like human extinction or a global AI-enabled stable totalitarian dictatorship that drastically reduce long-term potential.
Deep reflection is described as humanity collectively determining and acting on a strategy that maximizes future expected value, drawing on ideas like the long reflection and coherent extrapolated volition.
The author suggests that multiple different sufficient sets of primary cruxes may exist, and that discovering such a sufficient set would effectively solve macrostrategy.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.