Note there is a suite of Metaculus questions on the outbreak, including chance of escaping the MSM community. The question suite was developed as part of a project for the Lancet medical journal. Currently the median forecast is that 94% of cases at the end of 2022 will be among MSM, with 89% being the 25% lower bound among 24 forecasters.
Note there is a suite of Metaculus questions on the outbreak, including chance of escaping the MSM community. The question suite was developed as part of a project for the Lancet medical journal. Currently the median forecast is that 94% of cases at the end of 2022 will be among MSM, with 89% being the 25% lower bound among 24 forecasters.