Also re funding—obviously, super super biased here but I think something like “experimentation is good”, “the amount of EA money that’s been spent on prediction markets is quite low overall, in the single digit millions” and “it’s especially unclear where the money would be better spent”
Prediction pools (like Metaculus-style systems) are maybe the solution I’m most aware of in this space, and I think executing on these could also be quite valuable; if you have good proposals on how to get better forecasts about the future, I think a lot of people would happily fund those~
Also re funding—obviously, super super biased here but I think something like “experimentation is good”, “the amount of EA money that’s been spent on prediction markets is quite low overall, in the single digit millions” and “it’s especially unclear where the money would be better spent”
Prediction pools (like Metaculus-style systems) are maybe the solution I’m most aware of in this space, and I think executing on these could also be quite valuable; if you have good proposals on how to get better forecasts about the future, I think a lot of people would happily fund those~