I am concerned about the H5N1 situation in dairy cows and have written and overview document to which I occasionally add new learnings (new to me or new to world). I also set up a WhatsApp community that anyone is welcome to join for discussion & sharing news.
In brief:
I believe there are quite a few (~50-250) humans infected recently, but no sustained human-to-human transmission
I estimate the Infection Fatality Rate substantially lower than the ALERT team (theirs is 63% that CFR >= 10%), something like 80%CI = 0.1 − 5.0
The government’s response is astoundingly bad—I find it insane that raw milk is still being sold, with a high likelihood that some of it contains infectious H5N1
There are still quite a few genetic barriers to sustained human-to-human transmission
This might be a good time to push specific pandemic preparedness policies
I am concerned about the H5N1 situation in dairy cows and have written and overview document to which I occasionally add new learnings (new to me or new to world). I also set up a WhatsApp community that anyone is welcome to join for discussion & sharing news.
In brief:
I believe there are quite a few (~50-250) humans infected recently, but no sustained human-to-human transmission
I estimate the Infection Fatality Rate substantially lower than the ALERT team (theirs is 63% that CFR >= 10%), something like 80%CI = 0.1 − 5.0
The government’s response is astoundingly bad—I find it insane that raw milk is still being sold, with a high likelihood that some of it contains infectious H5N1
There are still quite a few genetic barriers to sustained human-to-human transmission
This might be a good time to push specific pandemic preparedness policies