Whilst I agree there is a disconcertingly high chance (i.e anything above 10% = very concerning) of coup/coup-adjacent actions by the Trump admin, it’s worth remembering that ‘coup attempt’ ≠ ‘coup success.’ It’s also worth remembering that 30% ‘thing happens’ means 70% ‘thing doesn’t happen.’
A larger market (n=158) on metaculus has 2% on “Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?” Given that he already won the election, the question is effectively “Will Trump retain supreme executive power past 2028?”. Granted, this excludes coup attempts by Vance, but, eh, idk why he would have a substantially higher chance of pulling of a successful coup (admittedly without having given it much thought).
Admittedly, I felt motivated by a gut level “I don’t like politics/Trump posting on the EA forum” to write a response. Or maybe it was also partly the subtle alarmism (which isn’t a claim that you intended to write an alarmist post, just that I read it as such).
Whilst I agree there is a disconcertingly high chance (i.e anything above 10% = very concerning) of coup/coup-adjacent actions by the Trump admin, it’s worth remembering that ‘coup attempt’ ≠ ‘coup success.’ It’s also worth remembering that 30% ‘thing happens’ means 70% ‘thing doesn’t happen.’
A larger market (n=158) on metaculus has 2% on “Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?” Given that he already won the election, the question is effectively “Will Trump retain supreme executive power past 2028?”. Granted, this excludes coup attempts by Vance, but, eh, idk why he would have a substantially higher chance of pulling of a successful coup (admittedly without having given it much thought).
Admittedly, I felt motivated by a gut level “I don’t like politics/Trump posting on the EA forum” to write a response. Or maybe it was also partly the subtle alarmism (which isn’t a claim that you intended to write an alarmist post, just that I read it as such).