This post comes to mind, which I cited in my nuclear GCR forecasts here, along with many other posts from that series. In general I expect posts from Rethink Priorities to be relevant. I’ve seen similar quality posts for AI risks and pandemics here. Most of my familiarity is with GCR’s but I expected there to be strong overlap between popular forecasting topics and popular EA forum topics more generally. There are lots of GCR related questions on Metaculus, and you can find many cited in that link with my forecasts.
Still, I think you’re right that this wouldn’t be applicable to the majority of EA forum posts. Maybe it’s only even displayed once a post is cited in a forecast, or only a particular tag is eligible for this in order to simplify the implementation.
I do think making people’s forecasting performance more obvious in different contexts would be very useful for the community (re: your brier scores in EAF profiles idea), and would love a central site that’s sort of like a minimum viable linkedin that consolidates relevant metrics for an individual across the top forecasting platforms and has an API that makes it easy to connect to other accounts, or use with discord bots etc. I may write about this soon.
Generating forecasts associated with a post is interesting and I’m sure there are UX opportunities to make this easier / more common, but I need to think more about it.
Good points.
This post comes to mind, which I cited in my nuclear GCR forecasts here, along with many other posts from that series. In general I expect posts from Rethink Priorities to be relevant. I’ve seen similar quality posts for AI risks and pandemics here. Most of my familiarity is with GCR’s but I expected there to be strong overlap between popular forecasting topics and popular EA forum topics more generally. There are lots of GCR related questions on Metaculus, and you can find many cited in that link with my forecasts.
Still, I think you’re right that this wouldn’t be applicable to the majority of EA forum posts. Maybe it’s only even displayed once a post is cited in a forecast, or only a particular tag is eligible for this in order to simplify the implementation.
I do think making people’s forecasting performance more obvious in different contexts would be very useful for the community (re: your brier scores in EAF profiles idea), and would love a central site that’s sort of like a minimum viable linkedin that consolidates relevant metrics for an individual across the top forecasting platforms and has an API that makes it easy to connect to other accounts, or use with discord bots etc. I may write about this soon.
Generating forecasts associated with a post is interesting and I’m sure there are UX opportunities to make this easier / more common, but I need to think more about it.
Thanks for the thoughtful response!