Niel gave a response to a similar comment below—I’ll just add a few things from my POV:
I’d guess that pausing (incl. for a long time) or slowing downAGI development would be good for helping AGI go well if it could be done by everyone / enforced / etc- so figuring out how to do that would be in scope re this more narrow focus. SO e.g. figuring out how an indefinite pause could work (maybe in a COVID-crisis like world where the overton window shifts?) seems helpful
I (& others at 80k) are just a lot less pessimistic vis a vis the prospects for AGI going well / not causing an existential catastrophe. So we just disagree about the premise that “there is actually NO credible path for ‘helping the transition to AGI go well’”. In my case maybe because I don’t believe your (2) is necessary (tho various other governance things probably are) & I think your (1) isn’t that unlikely to happen (tho very far from guaranteed!)
I’m at the same time more pessimistic about everyone the world stopping development toward this hugely commercially exciting technology, so feel like trying for that would be a bad strategy.
Hey Geoffrey,
Niel gave a response to a similar comment below—I’ll just add a few things from my POV:
I’d guess that pausing (incl. for a long time) or slowing downAGI development would be good for helping AGI go well if it could be done by everyone / enforced / etc- so figuring out how to do that would be in scope re this more narrow focus. SO e.g. figuring out how an indefinite pause could work (maybe in a COVID-crisis like world where the overton window shifts?) seems helpful
I (& others at 80k) are just a lot less pessimistic vis a vis the prospects for AGI going well / not causing an existential catastrophe. So we just disagree about the premise that “there is actually NO credible path for ‘helping the transition to AGI go well’”. In my case maybe because I don’t believe your (2) is necessary (tho various other governance things probably are) & I think your (1) isn’t that unlikely to happen (tho very far from guaranteed!)
I’m at the same time more pessimistic about everyone the world stopping development toward this hugely commercially exciting technology, so feel like trying for that would be a bad strategy.