Executive summary: Historical data suggests the US government has controlled about 28% of important technological innovations, with higher rates during wartime and for high-cost projects, indicating a significant but not dominant role in potential AGI development.
Key points:
Base rate of 28% for US government control of important innovations from 1880-2023, with no clear decline over time.
US share of global R&D funding has declined mildly from ~52% to ~39% since 1960, but impact on innovation control is uncertain.
US government control is 1.8x more common during war/cold war periods (35%) compared to peacetime (19%).
High-cost (billion-dollar) innovations are 1.6x more likely to be US government-controlled (38%) than lower-cost projects (24%).
Adjusting for likely high costs and geopolitical tensions, an illustrative base rate for US government control of AGI is 30-31%.
Data limitations and small sample sizes make these estimates exploratory; further research is needed for precise forecasts.
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Executive summary: Historical data suggests the US government has controlled about 28% of important technological innovations, with higher rates during wartime and for high-cost projects, indicating a significant but not dominant role in potential AGI development.
Key points:
Base rate of 28% for US government control of important innovations from 1880-2023, with no clear decline over time.
US share of global R&D funding has declined mildly from ~52% to ~39% since 1960, but impact on innovation control is uncertain.
US government control is 1.8x more common during war/cold war periods (35%) compared to peacetime (19%).
High-cost (billion-dollar) innovations are 1.6x more likely to be US government-controlled (38%) than lower-cost projects (24%).
Adjusting for likely high costs and geopolitical tensions, an illustrative base rate for US government control of AGI is 30-31%.
Data limitations and small sample sizes make these estimates exploratory; further research is needed for precise forecasts.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.