I also glanced at your CEA spreadsheet briefly and saw some “pessimistic” impact numbers which were positive. If I interpret you correctly, that “pessimistic” scenario is supposed to represent a 5th percentile outcome. If that’s right, I’d note that my naive impression is that >95% confidence that XR helps reduce carbon is overconfident. Of course you’re much better informed, but that still seems to me like it would be hard to justify being that confident.
I also glanced at your CEA spreadsheet briefly and saw some “pessimistic” impact numbers which were positive. If I interpret you correctly, that “pessimistic” scenario is supposed to represent a 5th percentile outcome. If that’s right, I’d note that my naive impression is that >95% confidence that XR helps reduce carbon is overconfident. Of course you’re much better informed, but that still seems to me like it would be hard to justify being that confident.