Hi Gregory, Thanks for the detailed answer. I’m still not clear on how the numbers quoted above (0.005, 3%, 2.5%) were calculated, nor how they affect the probability of Samuel et al 2010 replicating successfully. It is worthwhile to break down the problem in two parts:
(I) Does Samuel et al 2010 give us any information to support the hypothesis that Crohn’s might be cured by itraconazole? If so, how much?
(II) How large does an RCT need to be to properly test this hypothesis?
Answering these two questions is essential to determine if Samuel et al 2010 should be replicated or not (obviously with proper controls this time). This is what I am trying to determine with this forum post: should we raise ~500K$ to replicate it or not? What is the expected return on giving for this experiment?
Hi Gregory, Thanks for the detailed answer. I’m still not clear on how the numbers quoted above (0.005, 3%, 2.5%) were calculated, nor how they affect the probability of Samuel et al 2010 replicating successfully. It is worthwhile to break down the problem in two parts:
(I) Does Samuel et al 2010 give us any information to support the hypothesis that Crohn’s might be cured by itraconazole? If so, how much?
(II) How large does an RCT need to be to properly test this hypothesis?
Answering these two questions is essential to determine if Samuel et al 2010 should be replicated or not (obviously with proper controls this time). This is what I am trying to determine with this forum post: should we raise ~500K$ to replicate it or not? What is the expected return on giving for this experiment?