Thanks, this is a good post. A half-baked thought about a related but (I think) distinct reason for this phenomenon: I wonder if we tend to (re)define the scale of problems such that they are mostly unsolved at present (but also not so vast that we obviously couldn’t make a dent). For instance, it’s not natural to think that the problem of ‘eradicating global undernourishment’ is more than 90% solved, because fewer than 10% of people in the world are undernourished. As long as problems are (re)defined in this way to be smaller in absolute terms, then tractability is going to (appear to) proportionally increase, as a countervailing factor to diminishing returns from extra investment of resources. A nice feature of ITN is that (re)defining the scale of a problem such that it is always mostly unsolved at present doesn’t affect the bottom line of utility per marginal dollar, because (utility / % of problem solved) increases as (% of problem solved / marginal dollar) decreases. To the extent this is a real phenomenon, it could emphasise the importance of not reading too much into direct comparisons between tractability across causes.
To the extent this is a real phenomenon, it could emphasise the importance of not reading too much into direct comparisons between tractability across causes.
I agree this is a concern, and motivates me to move towards comparing the cost-effectiveness of specific projects instead of the importance, tractability and neglectedness of (not well defined) causes.
Thanks, this is a good post. A half-baked thought about a related but (I think) distinct reason for this phenomenon: I wonder if we tend to (re)define the scale of problems such that they are mostly unsolved at present (but also not so vast that we obviously couldn’t make a dent). For instance, it’s not natural to think that the problem of ‘eradicating global undernourishment’ is more than 90% solved, because fewer than 10% of people in the world are undernourished. As long as problems are (re)defined in this way to be smaller in absolute terms, then tractability is going to (appear to) proportionally increase, as a countervailing factor to diminishing returns from extra investment of resources. A nice feature of ITN is that (re)defining the scale of a problem such that it is always mostly unsolved at present doesn’t affect the bottom line of utility per marginal dollar, because (utility / % of problem solved) increases as (% of problem solved / marginal dollar) decreases. To the extent this is a real phenomenon, it could emphasise the importance of not reading too much into direct comparisons between tractability across causes.
Hi Fin,
I agree this is a concern, and motivates me to move towards comparing the cost-effectiveness of specific projects instead of the importance, tractability and neglectedness of (not well defined) causes.