Thank you jackva. Great points on this specific example.
In general, suppose we didn’t think this was a special moment. Then essentially this means we think ‘investing to give’ also presents a good opportunity. If ‘investing to give’ is also 10x CCF under Trump, then indeed you would want to just wait and either give under Biden or invest to give. But if ‘investing to give’ is only 5x CCF, then we’re in the scenario I discussed under ‘More general context’. So, fair point, I have added a sentence to the main post to explicitly rule out ‘investing to give’ being a consideration.
I’d be most interested to see people’s objections conditional on accepting a scenario where mission hedging seems like a valuable opportunity. Like the one I have tried to illustrate around last year’s election. Are there somehow more fundamental intuitions for why you would not pursue such a strategy?
Thank you jackva. Great points on this specific example.
In general, suppose we didn’t think this was a special moment. Then essentially this means we think ‘investing to give’ also presents a good opportunity. If ‘investing to give’ is also 10x CCF under Trump, then indeed you would want to just wait and either give under Biden or invest to give. But if ‘investing to give’ is only 5x CCF, then we’re in the scenario I discussed under ‘More general context’. So, fair point, I have added a sentence to the main post to explicitly rule out ‘investing to give’ being a consideration.
I’d be most interested to see people’s objections conditional on accepting a scenario where mission hedging seems like a valuable opportunity. Like the one I have tried to illustrate around last year’s election. Are there somehow more fundamental intuitions for why you would not pursue such a strategy?