Excerpt from the most recent update from the ALERT team:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1: What a week! The news, data, and analyses are coming in fast and furious.
Overall, ALERT team members feel that the risk of an H5N1 pandemic emerging over the coming decade is increasing. Team members estimate that the chance that the WHO will declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) within 1 year from now because of an H5N1 virus, in whole or in part, is 0.9% (range 0.5%-1.3%). The team sees the chance going up substantially over the next decade, with the 5-year chance at 13% (range 10%-15%) and the 10-year chance increasing to 25% (range 20%-30%).
their estimated 10 year risk is a lot higher than I would have anticipated.
Excerpt from the most recent update from the ALERT team:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1: What a week! The news, data, and analyses are coming in fast and furious.
Overall, ALERT team members feel that the risk of an H5N1 pandemic emerging over the coming decade is increasing. Team members estimate that the chance that the WHO will declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) within 1 year from now because of an H5N1 virus, in whole or in part, is 0.9% (range 0.5%-1.3%). The team sees the chance going up substantially over the next decade, with the 5-year chance at 13% (range 10%-15%) and the 10-year chance increasing to 25% (range 20%-30%).
their estimated 10 year risk is a lot higher than I would have anticipated.
I’m personally pretty concerned given the many rumors of farm workers falling ill and looking to join a discussion group.
In case it doesn’t exist, I’ve started a WhatsApp community that you can join via this link: https://​​chat.whatsapp.com/​​LD6OAM32PgF7WdJ51ABVsl
Have you got a link to where this excerpt came from?
forecasting newsletter by nuno sempere
Thanks, here’s the link for others: https://​​forecasting.substack.com/​​p/​​alert-minutes-for-week-172024