I know some people think EAs should have been far more suspicious of SBF than professional investors, the media etc were, but this stat from Benjamin_Todd nevertheless seems relevant:
in early 2022, metaculus had a 1% chance of FTX making any default on customer funds over the year with ~40 forecasters
I know some people think EAs should have been far more suspicious of SBF than professional investors, the media etc were, but this stat from Benjamin_Todd nevertheless seems relevant: