Also, the point of risk management isn’t to identify, with confidence, what will happen. It almost certainly was not possible to predict FTX’s collapse, much less the possibility of fraud, with high confidence.
What we probably could have done is find ways to mitigate that risk. For example, it sounds possible that money disbursed from the Future Fund could be clawed back. Was there an appropriate mechanism by which we could have avoided disbursing money until we were sure that grantees could feel totally secure that this would not happen? In fact, is there a way this could be implemented at other grantmaking organizations?
Could we have put the brakes on incorporating FTX Future Fund as an EA-affiliated grantmaker until it had been around for a while?
There are probably prudent steps we could start taking in the future to mitigate such damages without having to be oracles.
Also, the point of risk management isn’t to identify, with confidence, what will happen. It almost certainly was not possible to predict FTX’s collapse, much less the possibility of fraud, with high confidence.
What we probably could have done is find ways to mitigate that risk. For example, it sounds possible that money disbursed from the Future Fund could be clawed back. Was there an appropriate mechanism by which we could have avoided disbursing money until we were sure that grantees could feel totally secure that this would not happen? In fact, is there a way this could be implemented at other grantmaking organizations?
Could we have put the brakes on incorporating FTX Future Fund as an EA-affiliated grantmaker until it had been around for a while?
There are probably prudent steps we could start taking in the future to mitigate such damages without having to be oracles.