But the short timelines mean the chances of getting caught are a lot smaller because the world might end in 20-30 years. As we get closer to AGI, the chances of getting caught will be smaller still.
FWIW obviously people with the same utilitarian views will disagree on what is positive EV / a good action under the same set of premises / beliefs.
But even then, I think the chances you condone fraud to fund AI safety is very high under the combo of pure / extreme classical total utilitarianism + longtermism + short AI timelines, even if some people who share these beliefs might not condone fraud.
But the short timelines mean the chances of getting caught are a lot smaller because the world might end in 20-30 years. As we get closer to AGI, the chances of getting caught will be smaller still.
FWIW obviously people with the same utilitarian views will disagree on what is positive EV / a good action under the same set of premises / beliefs.
But even then, I think the chances you condone fraud to fund AI safety is very high under the combo of pure / extreme classical total utilitarianism + longtermism + short AI timelines, even if some people who share these beliefs might not condone fraud.