Maybe the status issues in the “lottery ticket” fields could be partially alleviated by having a formal mechanism of redistributing credit for success according to the ex-ante probabilities—for the malaria vaccine example, you could create something like impact certificates covering the output of all EAs working in the area, and distribute them according to an ex-ante estimate of each researcher’s usefulness, or some other agreed on distribution. In that case, you would end up with a certificate saying you own x% of the discovery of the malaria vaccine, which would be pretty cool to have (and valuable to have, if a the impact certificate market takes off).
Maybe the status issues in the “lottery ticket” fields could be partially alleviated by having a formal mechanism of redistributing credit for success according to the ex-ante probabilities—for the malaria vaccine example, you could create something like impact certificates covering the output of all EAs working in the area, and distribute them according to an ex-ante estimate of each researcher’s usefulness, or some other agreed on distribution. In that case, you would end up with a certificate saying you own x% of the discovery of the malaria vaccine, which would be pretty cool to have (and valuable to have, if a the impact certificate market takes off).