In the self-evaluation of their mistakes, the Intelligence community in the US came to the conclusion that lack of quantification of the likelihood that Saddam didn’t have WMDs was one of the reasons they messed up.
This led to forecasting tournaments which inturn lead to Tetlock’s superforcasting. I think the orthodox view in EA is that Tetlock’s work is valuable and we should apply its insights.
In the self-evaluation of their mistakes, the Intelligence community in the US came to the conclusion that lack of quantification of the likelihood that Saddam didn’t have WMDs was one of the reasons they messed up.
This led to forecasting tournaments which inturn lead to Tetlock’s superforcasting. I think the orthodox view in EA is that Tetlock’s work is valuable and we should apply its insights.