Scott’s analogy is correct, in that the problem with the criticism is that the thing someone failed to predict was on a different topic. It’s not reasonable to conclude that a climate scientist is bad at predicting the climate because they are bad at predicting mass shootings. If it were a thousand climate scientists predicting the climate a hundred years from now, and they all died in an earthquake yesterday, it’s not reasonable to conclude that their climate models were wrong because they failed to predict something outside the scope of their models.
Scott’s analogy is correct, in that the problem with the criticism is that the thing someone failed to predict was on a different topic. It’s not reasonable to conclude that a climate scientist is bad at predicting the climate because they are bad at predicting mass shootings. If it were a thousand climate scientists predicting the climate a hundred years from now, and they all died in an earthquake yesterday, it’s not reasonable to conclude that their climate models were wrong because they failed to predict something outside the scope of their models.