My understanding of the thinking most longtermist causes and interventions is that they are mostly about slightly decreasing the probability of a catastrophic event; or to put it differently, the idea is that there is a high probability that the intervention does nothing and a small probability that it does something incredibly important.
From that perspective I’m not sure that institutional longevity is really a priority and certainly don’t think that we can infer that longtermists aren’t indeed focused on the long term.
Longtermism is wider than catastrophic risk reduction—e.g. it also encompasses “trajectory changes”. It’s about building a flourishing future over the very long term. (Personally I think x-risk from AGI is a short-term issue and should be prioritised, and Longtermism hasn’t done great as a brand so far.)
Are we trying to build a temple?
My understanding of the thinking most longtermist causes and interventions is that they are mostly about slightly decreasing the probability of a catastrophic event; or to put it differently, the idea is that there is a high probability that the intervention does nothing and a small probability that it does something incredibly important.
From that perspective I’m not sure that institutional longevity is really a priority and certainly don’t think that we can infer that longtermists aren’t indeed focused on the long term.
Longtermism is wider than catastrophic risk reduction—e.g. it also encompasses “trajectory changes”. It’s about building a flourishing future over the very long term. (Personally I think x-risk from AGI is a short-term issue and should be prioritised, and Longtermism hasn’t done great as a brand so far.)