Would you say that what dictates my view on (a)vs(b) is my uncertainty between different epistemic principles
It seems pretty implausible to me that there are distinct normative principles that, combined with the principle of non-arbitrariness I mention in the “Problem 1” section, imply (b). Instead I suspect Vasco is reasoning about the implications of epistemic principles (applied to our evidence) in a way I’d find uncompelling even if I endorsed precise Bayesianism. So I think I’d answer “no” to your question. But I don’t understand Vasco’s view well enough to be confident.
Can you explain more why answering “no” makes metanormatively bracketing in consequentialist bracketing (a bit) arbitrary? My thinking is: Let E be epistemic principles that, among other things, require non-arbitrariness. (So, normative views that involve E might provide strong reasons for choice, all else equal.) If it’s sufficiently implausible that E would imply Vasco’s view, then E will still leave us clueless, because of insensitivity to mild sweetening.
I suspect Vasco is reasoning about the implications of epistemic principles (applied to our evidence) in a way I’d find uncompelling even if I endorsed precise Bayesianism.
Oh so for the sake of argument, assume the implications he sees are compelling. You are unsure about whether your good epistemic principles E imply (a) or (b).[1]
So then, the difference between (a) and (b) is purely empirical, and MNB does not allow me to compare (a) and (b), right? This is what I’d find a bit arbitrary, at first glance. The isolated fact that the difference between (a) and (b) is technically empirical and not normative doesn’t feel like a good reason to say that your “bracket in consequentialist bracketing” move is ok but not the “bracket in ex post neartermism” move (with my generous assumptions in favor of ex post neartermism).
I don’t mean to argue that this is a reasonable assumption. It’s just a useful one for me to understand what moves MNB does and does not allow. If you find this assumption hard to make, imagine that you learn that we likely are in simulation that is gonna shut down in 100 years and that the simulators aren’t watching us (so we don’t impact them).
So then, the difference between (a) and (b) is purely empirical, and MNB does not allow me to compare (a) and (b), right? This is what I’d find a bit arbitrary, at first glance.
Gotcha, thanks! Yeah, I think it’s fair to be somewhat suspicious of giving special status to “normative views”. I’m still sympathetic to doing so for the reasons I mention in the post (here). But it would be great to dig into this more.
It seems pretty implausible to me that there are distinct normative principles that, combined with the principle of non-arbitrariness I mention in the “Problem 1” section, imply (b). Instead I suspect Vasco is reasoning about the implications of epistemic principles (applied to our evidence) in a way I’d find uncompelling even if I endorsed precise Bayesianism. So I think I’d answer “no” to your question. But I don’t understand Vasco’s view well enough to be confident.
Can you explain more why answering “no” makes metanormatively bracketing in consequentialist bracketing (a bit) arbitrary? My thinking is: Let E be epistemic principles that, among other things, require non-arbitrariness. (So, normative views that involve E might provide strong reasons for choice, all else equal.) If it’s sufficiently implausible that E would imply Vasco’s view, then E will still leave us clueless, because of insensitivity to mild sweetening.
Oh so for the sake of argument, assume the implications he sees are compelling. You are unsure about whether your good epistemic principles E imply (a) or (b).[1]
So then, the difference between (a) and (b) is purely empirical, and MNB does not allow me to compare (a) and (b), right? This is what I’d find a bit arbitrary, at first glance. The isolated fact that the difference between (a) and (b) is technically empirical and not normative doesn’t feel like a good reason to say that your “bracket in consequentialist bracketing” move is ok but not the “bracket in ex post neartermism” move (with my generous assumptions in favor of ex post neartermism).
I don’t mean to argue that this is a reasonable assumption. It’s just a useful one for me to understand what moves MNB does and does not allow. If you find this assumption hard to make, imagine that you learn that we likely are in simulation that is gonna shut down in 100 years and that the simulators aren’t watching us (so we don’t impact them).
Gotcha, thanks! Yeah, I think it’s fair to be somewhat suspicious of giving special status to “normative views”. I’m still sympathetic to doing so for the reasons I mention in the post (here). But it would be great to dig into this more.