I think if there is major labor displacement by AI there will be a backlash just based on historical precedent. I think it would be much weirder if people were happy or even neutral about being replaced. I think the idea that massive amounts of people will be able to be retrained especially if they are middle aged is unrealistic. Especially since most of the jobs that are prone to replacement are those that are low or middle skill and retraining to a higher skill job requires quite a bit of effort. The other side of the coin is that the demographic shift that will happen in the coming decades will keep the labor market tight enough to prevent automation having such a huge impact. The increased automation may just make up for the lower labor force participation.
Good points. Collapsing birth rates and changing demographics might slightly soften the technological unemployment problem for younger people. But older people who have been doing the same job for 20-30 years will not be keen to ‘retrain’, start their careers over, and make an entry-level income in a job that, in turn, might be automated out of existence within another few years.
I think if there is major labor displacement by AI there will be a backlash just based on historical precedent. I think it would be much weirder if people were happy or even neutral about being replaced. I think the idea that massive amounts of people will be able to be retrained especially if they are middle aged is unrealistic. Especially since most of the jobs that are prone to replacement are those that are low or middle skill and retraining to a higher skill job requires quite a bit of effort. The other side of the coin is that the demographic shift that will happen in the coming decades will keep the labor market tight enough to prevent automation having such a huge impact. The increased automation may just make up for the lower labor force participation.
Good points. Collapsing birth rates and changing demographics might slightly soften the technological unemployment problem for younger people. But older people who have been doing the same job for 20-30 years will not be keen to ‘retrain’, start their careers over, and make an entry-level income in a job that, in turn, might be automated out of existence within another few years.