I think the crux is how the oracle makes predictions? (Assuming it’s sufficiently better than random; if it’s 50.01% accurate and the difference between the boxes is a factor of 1000 then of course you should just 2-box.) For example, if it just reads your DNA and predicts based on that, you should 1-box evidentially or 2-box causally. If it simulates you such that whichever choice you make, it would probably predict that you would make that choice, then you should 1-box. It’s not obvious without more detail how “your good friend” makes their prediction.
I think the crux is how the oracle makes predictions? (Assuming it’s sufficiently better than random; if it’s 50.01% accurate and the difference between the boxes is a factor of 1000 then of course you should just 2-box.) For example, if it just reads your DNA and predicts based on that, you should 1-box evidentially or 2-box causally. If it simulates you such that whichever choice you make, it would probably predict that you would make that choice, then you should 1-box. It’s not obvious without more detail how “your good friend” makes their prediction.