I think this post falls short of arguing compellingly for the conclusion.
It brings 1 positive example of a successful movement that didn’t schism early one, and 2 examples of large movements that did schism and then had trouble.
I don’t think it’s illegitimate to bring suggestive examples vs a system review of movement trajectories, but I think it should be admitted that cherry-picking isn’t hard for three examples.
There’s no effort expended to establish equivalence between EA and its goals and Christianity, Islam, or Atheism at the gears level of what they’re trying to do. I could argue that they’re pretty different.
I seriously do not expect that an EA schism would result in bloodshed for centuries. Instead, it might save thousands of hours spent debating online.
The argument that “EA is too important” proves too much. I could just as easily say that because the stakes are so high, we can’t afford to have a movement containing people with harmful beliefs, and therefore it’s crucial that we schism and focus fresh with people who have True Spirit of EA or whatever.
This is not something I fault this post for not arguing about , but I’m personally inclined to think that “longtermist” EA should not have tried to become a mass movement (which is what the examples described are), and instead should have stayed relatively small and grown extremely slowly. I suspect many people are starting to wonder whether that’s true, and if so, people who want a smaller, more focused, weirder, “extreme” group of people collaborating should withdraw from the people who aspire for a welcoming, broadly palatable mass-movement, and each group will get out each other’s way.
There are historical reasons for why things developed the way that did, but I think it is clear there are some distinct cultural/wordlview clusters in EA that have different models and values, and aren’t united by enough to overcome that. I think that splitting might allow both groups to continue rather than what would likely happen is one group just dissolving, or both groups dissolving except for a core of people who want to argue indefinitely.
What would convince me against splitting is if no, really, everyone here is united very strongly by some underlying core values and world beliefs, and we can make enough progress on the differences en masse. I’m skeptical, but it’s good to say what might convince you.
I think this post falls short of arguing compellingly for the conclusion.
It brings 1 positive example of a successful movement that didn’t schism early one, and 2 examples of large movements that did schism and then had trouble.
I don’t think it’s illegitimate to bring suggestive examples vs a system review of movement trajectories, but I think it should be admitted that cherry-picking isn’t hard for three examples.
There’s no effort expended to establish equivalence between EA and its goals and Christianity, Islam, or Atheism at the gears level of what they’re trying to do. I could argue that they’re pretty different.
I seriously do not expect that an EA schism would result in bloodshed for centuries. Instead, it might save thousands of hours spent debating online.
The argument that “EA is too important” proves too much. I could just as easily say that because the stakes are so high, we can’t afford to have a movement containing people with harmful beliefs, and therefore it’s crucial that we schism and focus fresh with people who have True Spirit of EA or whatever.
This is not something I fault this post for not arguing about , but I’m personally inclined to think that “longtermist” EA should not have tried to become a mass movement (which is what the examples described are), and instead should have stayed relatively small and grown extremely slowly. I suspect many people are starting to wonder whether that’s true, and if so, people who want a smaller, more focused, weirder, “extreme” group of people collaborating should withdraw from the people who aspire for a welcoming, broadly palatable mass-movement, and each group will get out each other’s way.
There are historical reasons for why things developed the way that did, but I think it is clear there are some distinct cultural/wordlview clusters in EA that have different models and values, and aren’t united by enough to overcome that. I think that splitting might allow both groups to continue rather than what would likely happen is one group just dissolving, or both groups dissolving except for a core of people who want to argue indefinitely.
What would convince me against splitting is if no, really, everyone here is united very strongly by some underlying core values and world beliefs, and we can make enough progress on the differences en masse. I’m skeptical, but it’s good to say what might convince you.