These are great questions. Several similar questions are already up which I’ve linked below (including one I approved after this post was written). I’ve also written three new questions based on your ideas, which I’m just waiting for someone else to proofread and will then add to this post.
Some fun, useful questions with shorter time horizons could be stuff like:
Will GiveWell add a new Top Charity to its list in 2020 (i.e. a Top Charity they haven’t previously recommended)?
How much money will the EA Funds grant in 2020? (total or broken down by Fund)
How many new charities will Charity Entrepreneurship launch in 2020?
How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of 2020?
How many articles in [The Economist/The New York Times/...?] will include the phrase “effective altruism” in 2020?
Stuff on global development and global poverty could also be useful. I don’t know if we have data to resolve them, but questions like:
What will the global poverty rate be in 2021, as reported by the World Bank?
How many malaria deaths will there be in 2021?
How many countries will grow their GDP by more than 5% in 2021?
These are great questions. Several similar questions are already up which I’ve linked below (including one I approved after this post was written). I’ve also written three new questions based on your ideas, which I’m just waiting for someone else to proofread and will then add to this post.
Will one of GiveWell’s 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?
Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?
Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?
How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?
Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?
Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?
Here are the three upcoming questions I’ve written in response to the ideas on this thread:
Who will win the ‘worm wars’?
When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?
How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?