The topline comparison between LLMs and superforecasters seems a bit unfair. You compare a single LLM’s forecast against the median from a crowd of superforecasters. But we know the median from a crowd is typically more accurate than any particular member of the crowd. Therefore I think it’d be more fair to compare a single LLM to a single superforecaster, or a crowd of LLMs against a crowd of superforecasters. Do we know whether the best LLM is better than the best individual forecaster in your sample, or how the median LLM compares to the median forecaster?
(Nitpick aside, this is very interesting research, thanks for doing it.)
The topline comparison between LLMs and superforecasters seems a bit unfair. You compare a single LLM’s forecast against the median from a crowd of superforecasters. But we know the median from a crowd is typically more accurate than any particular member of the crowd. Therefore I think it’d be more fair to compare a single LLM to a single superforecaster, or a crowd of LLMs against a crowd of superforecasters. Do we know whether the best LLM is better than the best individual forecaster in your sample, or how the median LLM compares to the median forecaster?
(Nitpick aside, this is very interesting research, thanks for doing it.)