Executive summary: Analysis of expert surveys on AI timelines suggests longer timeframes than commonly reported, with the median expert predicting a 20% chance of full automation by 2048 and 80% by 2103.
Key points:
New analysis of ESPAI survey data improves on previous presentations by showing distribution of responses and combining task/occupation automation metrics
Substantial expert disagreement exists—for 2048 automation, central 50% of experts gave probabilities between 1% and 60%
Author recommends against reducing findings to single-point estimates, favoring probability ranges
Author offers a bet challenging those with shorter AI timelines, wagering on Metaculus’ superintelligent AI question through 2028
Survey analysis suggests full automation timeline is significantly longer than many popular predictions indicate
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Analysis of expert surveys on AI timelines suggests longer timeframes than commonly reported, with the median expert predicting a 20% chance of full automation by 2048 and 80% by 2103.
Key points:
New analysis of ESPAI survey data improves on previous presentations by showing distribution of responses and combining task/occupation automation metrics
Substantial expert disagreement exists—for 2048 automation, central 50% of experts gave probabilities between 1% and 60%
Author recommends against reducing findings to single-point estimates, favoring probability ranges
Author offers a bet challenging those with shorter AI timelines, wagering on Metaculus’ superintelligent AI question through 2028
Survey analysis suggests full automation timeline is significantly longer than many popular predictions indicate
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.