That’s a really important distinction. In many x-risk discussions, the uncertainty around the probability estimate itself may matter more than the headline number. With risks like aviation or asteroid impacts, we have stronger empirical data and tighter confidence intervals. But for existential risks, the distribution can be extremely skewed and poorly constrained, which makes expected value calculations much more sensitive to assumptions. So people may reasonably react not only to low probabilities, but also to deep uncertainty about the tails of the distribution.
That’s a really important distinction. In many x-risk discussions, the uncertainty around the probability estimate itself may matter more than the headline number. With risks like aviation or asteroid impacts, we have stronger empirical data and tighter confidence intervals. But for existential risks, the distribution can be extremely skewed and poorly constrained, which makes expected value calculations much more sensitive to assumptions. So people may reasonably react not only to low probabilities, but also to deep uncertainty about the tails of the distribution.