There’s no consensus in the field of AI that AGI poses a real risk.
I’m not sure what the threshold is for consensus but a new survey of ML researchers finds:
“Support for AI safety research is up: 69% of respondents believe society should prioritize AI safety research “more” or “much more” than it is currently prioritized, up from 49% in 2016. …
The median respondent believes the probability that the long-run effect of advanced AI on humanity will be “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)” is 5%. … Many respondents put the chance substantially higher: 48% of respondents gave at least 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome. Though another 25% put it at 0%.”
I’m a little skeptical about this survey due to its 17% response rate. I also worry about conflict of interest. AI Impacts is lead by people associated with the rationalist community, and the rationalist community has its inception in trying to figure out ways to convince people of the threat of AGI.
However, I think it’s great that these surveys are being created and support further efforts to make the state of expert opinion on this subject more legible.
I’m not sure what the threshold is for consensus but a new survey of ML researchers finds:
“Support for AI safety research is up: 69% of respondents believe society should prioritize AI safety research “more” or “much more” than it is currently prioritized, up from 49% in 2016. …
The median respondent believes the probability that the long-run effect of advanced AI on humanity will be “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)” is 5%. … Many respondents put the chance substantially higher: 48% of respondents gave at least 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome. Though another 25% put it at 0%.”
Thank you for bringing the data!
I’m a little skeptical about this survey due to its 17% response rate. I also worry about conflict of interest. AI Impacts is lead by people associated with the rationalist community, and the rationalist community has its inception in trying to figure out ways to convince people of the threat of AGI.
However, I think it’s great that these surveys are being created and support further efforts to make the state of expert opinion on this subject more legible.