Then your issue is with systemically flawed reasoning overestimating the likelihood of low-probability events. The solution for that would be to adjust by some factor that adjusts for this systemic epistemic bias, and then proceed with risk-neutral EV maximization (again, with the caveats that I had mentioned in my initial comment).
Then your issue is with systemically flawed reasoning overestimating the likelihood of low-probability events. The solution for that would be to adjust by some factor that adjusts for this systemic epistemic bias, and then proceed with risk-neutral EV maximization (again, with the caveats that I had mentioned in my initial comment).