I wish people would talk more about “sensitivity analysis”.
Your parameter estimates are just that, estimates. They probably result from intuitions or napkin math. They probably aren’t that precise. It’s easy to imagine a reasonable person generating different estimates in many cases.
If a relatively small change in parameters would lead to a relatively large change in the EV (example: in Scenario 3, just estimate the “probability of harm” a teensy bit different so it has a few more 9s, and the action looks far less attractive!) — then you should either (a) choose a different action, or (b) validate your estimates quite thoroughly since the VoI is very high, and beware of the Unilateralist’s Curse in this scenario, since other actors may be making parallel estimates for the action in question.
I wish people would talk more about “sensitivity analysis”.
Your parameter estimates are just that, estimates. They probably result from intuitions or napkin math. They probably aren’t that precise. It’s easy to imagine a reasonable person generating different estimates in many cases.
If a relatively small change in parameters would lead to a relatively large change in the EV (example: in Scenario 3, just estimate the “probability of harm” a teensy bit different so it has a few more 9s, and the action looks far less attractive!) — then you should either (a) choose a different action, or (b) validate your estimates quite thoroughly since the VoI is very high, and beware of the Unilateralist’s Curse in this scenario, since other actors may be making parallel estimates for the action in question.