Are the projects of most EA individuals truly independent in the sense of their EVs being essentially uncorrelated with each other? That would be surprising to me, given that many of those projects are conditional on positive evaluation from a small number of funders, and many arose out of the same meta (so would be expected to have meaningful correlations with other active projects).
So my prediction is that most EA stuff falls into one of your two caveats. What I don’t have a good sense of is how correlated the average EA work is, and thus the degree of caution / risk aversion implied by the caveats.
Are the projects of most EA individuals truly independent in the sense of their EVs being essentially uncorrelated with each other? That would be surprising to me, given that many of those projects are conditional on positive evaluation from a small number of funders, and many arose out of the same meta (so would be expected to have meaningful correlations with other active projects).
So my prediction is that most EA stuff falls into one of your two caveats. What I don’t have a good sense of is how correlated the average EA work is, and thus the degree of caution / risk aversion implied by the caveats.