I’m not sure I understand the distinction you’re making...
I’m trying to distinguish between cost-effectiveness analyses (quantitative work that takes a bunch of inputs and arrives at a output, usually in the form of a best-guess cost-per-outcome), and theoretical reasoning (often qualitative, doesn’t arrive at a numerical cost-per-outcome, instead arrives at something like ”...and so this thing is probably best”).
Perhaps all theoretical reasoning is just a kind of imprecise cost-effect analysis, but I think they’re actually using pretty different mental processes.
The most successful forecasters tend to rely less on a single theoretical model and more on an ensemble of models...
Sure, but forecasters are working with pretty tight time horizons. I’ve never heard of a forecaster making predictions about what will happen 1000 years from now. (And even if one did, what could we make of such a prediction?)
My argument is that what we care about (the entire course of the future) extends far beyond what we can predict (the next few years, perhaps the next few decades).
I’m trying to distinguish between cost-effectiveness analyses (quantitative work that takes a bunch of inputs and arrives at a output, usually in the form of a best-guess cost-per-outcome), and theoretical reasoning (often qualitative, doesn’t arrive at a numerical cost-per-outcome, instead arrives at something like ”...and so this thing is probably best”).
Perhaps all theoretical reasoning is just a kind of imprecise cost-effect analysis, but I think they’re actually using pretty different mental processes.
Sure, but forecasters are working with pretty tight time horizons. I’ve never heard of a forecaster making predictions about what will happen 1000 years from now. (And even if one did, what could we make of such a prediction?)
My argument is that what we care about (the entire course of the future) extends far beyond what we can predict (the next few years, perhaps the next few decades).