Nearly impossible to answer. This report by OpenPhil gives it a hell of an effort, but could still be wrong by orders of magnitude. Most fundamentally, the amount of compute necessary for AGI might not be related to the amount of compute used by the human brain, because we don’t know how similar our algorithmic efficiency is compared to the brain’s.
Nearly impossible to answer. This report by OpenPhil gives it a hell of an effort, but could still be wrong by orders of magnitude. Most fundamentally, the amount of compute necessary for AGI might not be related to the amount of compute used by the human brain, because we don’t know how similar our algorithmic efficiency is compared to the brain’s.
https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/