How could we measure the impact of this extra certainty on planning and effectiveness? Ask the charities in question? GWWC? Can’t really think of how to resolve this until this question is answered, then to compare it against the expected difference between the current best charity and the future charity, which would be a (partially bounded?) guestimation..
I’m not adept at quantitative analysis, so I’m not prepared to model this problem. So I’m unsure of how that impact would be measured. However, based on how rather abstract notions seem quantified well by Givewell, 80,000 Hours, and Giving What We Can, I think someone we know could figure it out. It seems important.
How could we measure the impact of this extra certainty on planning and effectiveness? Ask the charities in question? GWWC? Can’t really think of how to resolve this until this question is answered, then to compare it against the expected difference between the current best charity and the future charity, which would be a (partially bounded?) guestimation..
I’m not adept at quantitative analysis, so I’m not prepared to model this problem. So I’m unsure of how that impact would be measured. However, based on how rather abstract notions seem quantified well by Givewell, 80,000 Hours, and Giving What We Can, I think someone we know could figure it out. It seems important.