We expect that EA Madison has reached something like 50 person-hours of attention (excluding Gina and Ben), though that could easily be off by a factor of 2 in either direction and we have talked to no one else involved with it.
Our very rough guess for the stimulated donations per hour was around $20. A lot of this comes in the form of general engagement rather than directly in the form of donations. This gives a value of about $1000 of donations stimulated.
We expect it to be possible to make a much less noisy evaluation in the future once we can evaluate some of the impact of the group in retrospect. We think our evaluation will predictably rise in expectation over time, reflecting our general preference for purchasing things after their impacts are easier to assess. Our actual expectation for the project’s impact obviously can’t predictably rise.
The average is very sensitive to how many small groups there are and how many of them we choose to count as an EA group. I don’t know the answer, and it doesn’t seem very informative about the value of any particular group. Perhaps it would be easier to talk about the average EV per participant-hour, and $20 of EA donations was our guess of that (though it will depend on the kind of participant—there are lots of ways of recruiting participants that I would evaluate lower, and some I would evaluate higher).
Our very crude evaluation:
We expect that EA Madison has reached something like 50 person-hours of attention (excluding Gina and Ben), though that could easily be off by a factor of 2 in either direction and we have talked to no one else involved with it.
Our very rough guess for the stimulated donations per hour was around $20. A lot of this comes in the form of general engagement rather than directly in the form of donations. This gives a value of about $1000 of donations stimulated.
We expect it to be possible to make a much less noisy evaluation in the future once we can evaluate some of the impact of the group in retrospect. We think our evaluation will predictably rise in expectation over time, reflecting our general preference for purchasing things after their impacts are easier to assess. Our actual expectation for the project’s impact obviously can’t predictably rise.
What do you think the average (mean) expected value of an EA group is?
The average is very sensitive to how many small groups there are and how many of them we choose to count as an EA group. I don’t know the answer, and it doesn’t seem very informative about the value of any particular group. Perhaps it would be easier to talk about the average EV per participant-hour, and $20 of EA donations was our guess of that (though it will depend on the kind of participant—there are lots of ways of recruiting participants that I would evaluate lower, and some I would evaluate higher).