As someone who works on comms stuff, I struggle with this a lot too! One thing I’ve found helpful is just asking decision makers, or people close to decision makers, why they did something. It’s imperfect, but often helpful — e.g. when I’ve asked DC people what catalysed the increased political interest in AI safety, they overwhelmingly cited the CAIS letter, which seems like a fairly good sign that it worked. (Similarly, I’ve heard from people that Ian Hogarth’s FT article may have achieved a similar effect in the UK.)
There are also proxies that can be kind of useful — if an article is incredibly widely read, and is the main topic on certain corners of Twitter for the day, and then the policy suggestions from that article end up happening, it’s probably at least in part because of the article. If readership/discussion was low, you’re probably not the cause.
As someone who works on comms stuff, I struggle with this a lot too! One thing I’ve found helpful is just asking decision makers, or people close to decision makers, why they did something. It’s imperfect, but often helpful — e.g. when I’ve asked DC people what catalysed the increased political interest in AI safety, they overwhelmingly cited the CAIS letter, which seems like a fairly good sign that it worked. (Similarly, I’ve heard from people that Ian Hogarth’s FT article may have achieved a similar effect in the UK.)
There are also proxies that can be kind of useful — if an article is incredibly widely read, and is the main topic on certain corners of Twitter for the day, and then the policy suggestions from that article end up happening, it’s probably at least in part because of the article. If readership/discussion was low, you’re probably not the cause.