I think it’s true that many outsource their thinking to GW, but I think there could still be risk aversion in the thought process. Many of these people have also been exposed to arguments for higher risk higher reward charities such as X-risks or funding in-vitro meat research, and I think a common thought process is “I’d prefer to go with the safer and more established causes that GW recommends.” Even if they haven’t explicitly done the EV calculation themselves, qualitatively similar thought processes may still occur.
I think it’s true that many outsource their thinking to GW, but I think there could still be risk aversion in the thought process. Many of these people have also been exposed to arguments for higher risk higher reward charities such as X-risks or funding in-vitro meat research, and I think a common thought process is “I’d prefer to go with the safer and more established causes that GW recommends.” Even if they haven’t explicitly done the EV calculation themselves, qualitatively similar thought processes may still occur.