Interesting analysis! I don’t have any experience conducting such analyses myself, but I was curious which interventions are considered part of pandemic preparedness when calculating the total cost. Does it also include indirect costs, such as research funding or capacity-building projects?
Below is the relevant section from Bernstein et. al 2022. I have bolded the 6 measures included in the annual cost of 20 G$.
THE COSTS OF PRIMARY PREVENTION
Previously, we provided preliminary estimates of how much primary prevention might cost (9). We presented six estimates of annual costs. We estimated $19 billion to close down China’s wildlife farming industry, based on a Chinese report (76). A total of $476 million to $842 million were needed to reduce spillover from livestock based on (77) and the World Bank One World One Health farm biosecurity intervention program (78). The report provided the cost of implementing enhanced biosecurity for zoonoses around farming systems in low to middle income countries, and we extrapolated those data to the 31 countries with high risk of wildlife viral spillover risk from (65, 66).
The other four were our estimates for viral discovery ($120 million to $340 million), early detection and control ($217 million to $279 million), wildlife trade surveillance ($250 million to $750 million), and programs to reduce spillover from livestock ($476 million to $852 million). The most complicated estimate was reducing deforestation by half ($1.53 billion to $9.59 billion). These broad-brush estimates provide essential insights into the relative magnitude of each task. Here, we provide more details of the underlying issues determining costs and the challenges of implementation.
Interesting analysis! I don’t have any experience conducting such analyses myself, but I was curious which interventions are considered part of pandemic preparedness when calculating the total cost. Does it also include indirect costs, such as research funding or capacity-building projects?
Thanks for the relevant question, Dhruvin!
Below is the relevant section from Bernstein et. al 2022. I have bolded the 6 measures included in the annual cost of 20 G$.